Hold Tight
These are worrisome times. War, real estate doldrums, sub-prime mortgages and more are causing a lot of sleepless nights and nervous days. Our view is that these problems are serious, but there are also a number of reasons to be optimistic. But, for now, let's think about what we should be doing - or not doing.
These are worrisome times. War, real estate doldrums, sub-prime mortgages and more are causing a lot of sleepless nights and nervous days. Our view is that these problems are serious, but there are also a number of reasons to be optimistic. But, for now, let's think about what we should be doing - or not doing.
Cycles, by their nature, have ups and downs. Right now we are in a down period. It is important to look back and see that cycles are not permanent. We routinely see market declines of 5% or more. In fact, this happens about three times every year, and generally lasts less that 50 days .A moderate decline of 10% or more occurs just about once a year, and generally lasts about 1/3 of a year. A severe downturn of 15% or more is seen about once every two years and takes 2/3 of a year to recover. Even a big bad bear market of 20% or more comes along every 3.5 years. the average time for recovery from a bear market is just under one year. Every decline represents opportunity for those who are looking for and prepared to act on bargains.
For those of us who are worried about our own portfolios, there are a few rules that we should observe. Number one is to stay invested, don't act on emotion and sell low then buy high. This does not work. Number two of our basic rules is invest for income. Whether a stock price is rising or falling, companies continue to pay dividends. Growth and income and equity income funds produce a steady flow of dividend income. The last rule is to seek out consistency by following a track of investing defensively and conservatively.
We cannot control cycles. But we will weather them better if we focus on what we can control. Contact us for lists of steady performers.